Today @ VSDA: Friday, July 10th

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Site created 12/15/97.

page created: 7/12/98

Today @ VSDA!

Friday, July 10th

L to R: myself, Te Smith and Corey Bridges of NetFLix.

With no DVD announcements forthcoming on Friday morning (much to the chagrin of many attendees), my wife and I managed the only bit of relaxation of the week - a lunch with Marc Randolph, Te Smith and Corey Bridges of NetFlix. For the record, they're really a fun bunch - nice people, and very good company. I was glad for the opportunity to spend some time with them.

But upon returning to the Convention Center, I had a purpose. Earlier in the week, VSDA and DVD Video Group execs had referred to a study (commissioned from the research company Yankelovich Partners) on the future of the home video market. It was to be released on Friday morning to the press, but when I had checked the press room earlier in the morning, copies had not yet been readied for distribution. Fortunately, by the time I returned after lunch, I was able to obtain a copy.

Entitled Into the Future, this study was the second wave of a market research project first begun in November 1997. 1,938 Americans were surveyed on a wide range of home video topics. The criteria were that those interviewed were at least 18 years of age or older, and that they owned a VCR. According to the study, those simple criteria represents 85% of American households. Wave II interviews were conducted from April 30th to May 25th of this year. The goal was to obtain a baseline - to see how trends in the consumer marketplace (such as the growing impact of DVD) were progressing. The results are exciting for DVD (note that the margin of error for the total sample is + or - 2.2%).

According to the survey, consumer familiarity with DVD has doubled in the past 6 months, from 18% in November '97 to 37% as of late May. The survey calls this, "an impressive feat. This is good news for DVD and crucial to the success of the format." The survey suggests that some 3% of VCR owners now have DVD players (although other than the fact that DVD player penetration is not yet significant, no conclusions can be drawn from this due to the margin of error). More importantly, however, is that 6% of VCR owners said that they are extremely or very likely to purchase DVD players in the next 6 months, and that another 11% said they were somewhat likely to do so. This is an extremely impressive statistic for a format only 15 months old. As a qualifier, some 66% of those who claimed to be likely purchasers of DVD, said that their local video store renting DVD movies was extremely important in their decision to buy a DVD player. This is why VSDA and the DVD Video Group are embarking on a big push to get video stores to carry DVD.

There are other interesting results of the survey. 61% of those surveyed who own a DVD player, say that they also own a laserdisc player, and another 32% of likely DVD purchasers currently own laserdisc players. But the numbers suggest that most of the future growth for the format will come from consumers who have never owned laserdisc. Interestingly enough, Generation X men and women (age 18-34) make up the largest percentage of those who say they are likely to purchase DVD players (some 54%), as opposed to Boomers (age 35-49) who tend to prefer DBS and pay-per-view. In addition, the survey shows that 51% of likely DVD purchasers are high-frequency theatergoers, 31% are high frequency video renters (among all renters), and 44% are high frequency video purchasers.

Recordable DVD is a feature heavily favored by those surveyed, followed by standard DVD. Divx trails significantly in all areas. The survey shows that with Divx "receiving significantly lower support than regular DVD in the Wave II concept test, it is questionable as to whether consumers see Divx as an enhancement to regular DVD," as Divx has claimed. The final conclusion drawn by the survey with regards to DVD: "DVD is positioned to defeat Divx, although widespread adoption of either format will be difficult" without a recording feature (meaning that unless DVD becomes recordable, it isn't likely to replace VCRs). But we knew that already. No one that I know seriously expects that DVD will ever approach VCR penetration, but it will certainly be a much larger market than laserdisc.

New Line was promoting Lost In Space with
props and another 'green-screen' photo opportunity.

Well, on to more of the Friday activity on the show floor. As you can see, New Line had an impressive display promoting Lost in Space, which will be released to VHS and DVD in the fall. In addition to the Robot, and a 'green-screen' picture opportunity (which places you in a group shot with the Robinsons), several other props, costumes and set pieces from the film were on display. Among them were a space suit, laser guns and a cyro-pod.

Of course, the Robot himself was there to greet visitors.

The HBO booth displayed a number of exciting
new DVD titles on the way, including...

My other exciting DVD discovery on the show floor, was an exciting display at the HBO Home Video booth on their upcoming release of From the Earth to the Moon! Those of you who read my site regularly, know how much I enjoyed this cable mini-series. The effects were absolutely first-rate, and Tom Hanks and company did a nice job of humanizing the experiences of the astronauts, their wives, and all those at NASA who helped to make possible what will surely be remembered as the most important event of the 20th Century - the Apollo moon voyages. There were 12 hour-long episodes in the series, which will be placed 3 to a disc in the 4-disc collector's edition set (currently scheduled to street on November 10th). It remains to be seen what extras will be included, but the program alone promises to make From the Earth to the Moon one of the most impressive DVD releases thus far.

... my personal favorite, a four-disc collector's
edition of Tom Hank's From the Earth to the Moon!

I'll refrain from going into detail on the Warner Bros. presence at VSDA, as most of their news is included in the official press release about their new 'three-tiered' pricing plan. Check recent updates of the Rumor Mill for info on the exciting new releases in the offing from Warner.

Naturally, Warner Bros. wins the award for
Best Champion of DVD (at least in my book).

Columbia/TriStar's presence on the show floor was largely flash - a massive stage dedicated to performances by the Riverdance troupe. But a new pamphlet in their press package (that will soon be packaged with their DVD product) reveals a host of upcoming DVD titles from them. Listed as coming soon, are: Blue Thunder, The Big Hit, The Caine Mutiny, Candyman, Fright Night, Homegrown, Howards End, Hush, It Could Happen to You, Money Train, Mortal Thoughts, Nowhere to Run, Oliver!, Peggy Sue Got Married, The Quick and the Dead, Revenge, The Seventh Sign, Sex, Lies and Videotape, Sniper, The Spanish Prisoner, Starman, Stripes, Thunderheart (yeah!), To Die For, The Wild One and Wild Things.

Interestingly, no mention is made of Godzilla (which I know is in the works), Close Encounters, Men In Black or Sense and Sensibility... stay tuned...

Columbia/TriStar had few staff members in their booth,
but had the folks from Riverdance put on quite a show.

Friday, July 10th (Page 2)